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After the Dolphins opened the season with two upset victories, one would think that more of the public would be jumping on the Miami bandwagon.
So far, that doesn't seem to be the case. After opening as 3. With a profile like that, picking Oakland as an upset gambit doesn't make sense compared to other options.
It's sounds tough to side with a winless team Still, there's a decent amount of circumstantial evidence that the public is at least slightly overrating the Bucs.
Tampa Bay, a team not expected to be very good, has beaten a Saints team that looks shakier than expected and a banged-up Eagles squad.
Don't forget that the Bucs were only three-point underdogs against Philly. This game looks like it's close to a coin flip, but the public likes Tampa Bay.
That's almost always a good opportunity to go the other way. It's certainly worth watching the news on QB Aaron Rodgers' health as your pick deadline approaches or just watch the betting line, which should reflect any relevant public information.
Red-hot Kansas City and their looking-like-a-stud QB are probably going to win this game. However, the Chiefs are being significantly overrated by the public on the heels of their impressive start.
But the game lines for Weeks has them a bit weaker than that. Just look at Week 1, where the Panthers aren't getting a full three points against the Cowboys , a team with an 8.
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If you're a believer in the Panthers, it makes more sense to take some of those more questionable game lines in a market where they're perceived as a weaker team.
SEA in Week If instead you think the win expectancy number is closer to the Panthers' true value, it makes a lot of sense to jump on Under 9 wins, even at I probably fall in the latter group, as expecting the Panthers to get to 10 wins seems a bit much -- I think the Saints and Falcons are a step ahead in that division.
The Texans are the reverse case of the Panthers, a team that sees its Over juiced in the win total market and even higher expectations in the game-line market.
Those that buy into a great season for the Texans should hop on Over 8. If you're not a fan of paying the juice, the Texans are even odds to make the playoffs, and in what appears to be a weaker AFC, nine wins may well be enough to get them in.
I'm pessimistic on this team, thanks in part to what I feel will be a poor offensive line, so I'd be looking to fade them in the game-line market, where they're perceived as being close to a 9.
Lines I like include NE HOU in Week I think the Ravens are one of the AFC's sleepers this year, and the win expectancy market seems to agree.
While their win total is marked at only eight wins, their game lines have them closer to being a nine-win team. The Colts look like the better play in most pool formats.
In Week 10, all of the games have a point spread of at least three points, so going with even the smallest underdogs this week will involve more risk than in other weeks where you could pick a toss up or smaller underdog.
Only 14 percent of the public has picked the Panthers, so you will have the opportunity to gain ground on many of your competitors if Carolina pulls off the upset.
While there are a few less risky underdogs, such as Jacksonville and Washington, those teams have a smaller differential between win odds and public popularity.
Maybe all, maybe only one or two. We're not dodging the question -- the truth is that it takes a lot of math to get to the right answer.
We built our Football Pool Picks to do all the number crunching for you and figure out when it makes the most sense for you to go with the favorite vs.